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Topic: When is the Revolution Coming?

Part of the forum "Dialog Cafe" in the IshCon Forum Archive

Poster and Date Post
Huby7
Sat Oct 7th, 2006 at 07:58 AM
Matt Savinar (Author of The Oil Age is Over ) claims there isn't going to be a revolution.

Why?

"The point is that in most instances, all other things being equal, we humans tend to be most attracted to other humans based on how much energy they've consumed/procured or appear capable of consuming/procuring. This is true even among peer groups who pride themselves on consuming less energy or advocate living with a smaller footprint."


Curt
memeshredder
Sat Oct 7th, 2006 at 09:35 AM
right.

he who has good tea knows many people.

the revolution could flip this man's opinion on his head, if it became about making quality things for our friend, a very nobly savage thing to do...
Nene
Sat Oct 7th, 2006 at 10:08 AM
Hey --

Jason posted a response to this yesterday...

Janene
odb_fan_1
Sat Oct 7th, 2006 at 11:15 AM
call me crazy, but it sounds like savinar's point was two-fold, and jason confused it as one. savinar basically said in that second point that we have a biological basis to overconsume. then jason misinterpreted that to mean prestige for the hunter.
Nene
Sat Oct 7th, 2006 at 11:56 AM
Hey Adam --

I don't think he actually confused the points, but he may not have made all of his connections very concisely: like so much of the stuff we talk about, there is the biological reality of human animals, and then there is the cultural overlay that either works with, or against, that biological reality. I think Jason't point was that the cultural overlay in functional societies makes our biological drive to consume, work, therefore it is not correct to say that it is impossible for humans to live in a way that does not consume the planet.

That was a whole lot of words for something that should be fairly simple... hmmm... to many layers of negation :roll:

Janene
Ghost
Sat Oct 7th, 2006 at 03:43 PM
I think Sinvar is framing everything in a way that I personally would not agree with.

Will there be a revolution? You better believe it. You cannot oppress a large group of people and starve them out without them reaching a snapping point. That has been proven time and time again. Is that the revolution he speaks of? Of course not. He's speaking about a "joyful revolution" in which people dismantle the current system to create a wonderful utopia in which we're all sustainable. Problem is, that kind of revolution doesn't exist because revolutions sustain civilisations which are inherently unsustainable.

Will there be an organised massive global change for the better? Fuck no. The globe never has and never will operate in unison. I think that this is the revolution he speaks of.

Will there be a revolution in the sense of their being a general adoption of a new paradigm; like the industrial revolution? It's possible. It just requires a tipping point.

Will there be a lot of change? Certainly there can be. I think that's what we're likely to see. People will come up with ideas and make changes in their lives pre, during and post collapse. Will civilsiation collapse? Certainly. It's nothing new. That means a reduction in complexity. 0-100% of the global population will survive it. Will that collapse make them change their minds? Based on historical data, not likely; although, it is possible at least for some small segment. More likely, if the conditions for maintaining hierarchy are not present, people will be forced into a cooperative lifestyle; however, that still doesn't mean mind change.

Point is, a lot of the examples he makes are demonstrably false. At least his argument is internally consistent. I don't agree but whatever. Has he nailed the Truth? I hardly think so. His model assumes that humans are retarded and cannot use their cognitive faculties to decide on their course of action; which is irrelevant anyway if he's right and we do have some hard wired tendancy to overconsume; an argument Harris makes. I disagree with both of them.

I think that Jason's example of cursing the meat shows how belief can have a profound influence on what we do; a fact that Sinvar ignores (well, really he just says the belief is that people with more are better and that that belief is unchangable) and a fact that Harris believes is probabalistically subservient to our desire to overproduce.

I think we have to be very cognisent of the terms; underproduce, produce and overproduce. Humans have a drive to produce, that seems fairly supportable; we need what we need. We don't like to underproduce and will work harder to bring our output back to regular production levels. But there is no evidence to support that humans, nor any other species for that matter, have an inherent drive to overproduce. SOME humans do but it is hardly a universal.

Peace and Love and Empathy,

Matt
Ludi
Sat Oct 7th, 2006 at 08:48 PM
Isn't there some evidence that most human cultures didn't overproduce?
jefgodesky
Sat Oct 7th, 2006 at 11:57 PM
ODB, there was no confusion. Savinar used the example of hunters to prove that we're driven by biology to overconsume. I agree that that biological drive exists--and I also agree with him (and disagree with Matt, sorry) that there will not be a revolution. Most people will take whatever you're willing to shell out. Human adaptability makes us very obedient and tolerant of abuse. But his example of the hunters should have led him a bit deeper, because the way his thought experiment runs isn't the way foragers actually work. Why not? Because culture can mediate the terms of that competition. What I'm saying is that Savinar's point is completely true, but it's also bracketed within a more salient point that makes it not nearly as damning as Savinar would like it to be.

So if you're waiting for a revolution, I wouldn't hold your breath. It's not revolution--it's evolution.
Ghost
Sun Oct 8th, 2006 at 04:14 PM
Hey, Lynn.

I would say, yes. The records seem to be fairly clear that only a handful of cultures began to overproduce. One of them just happened to overrun the planet.

I think the idea that we're hardwired to overproduce is ludicrous. Overproduction is markedly different than production. In a time of plenty a population that is simply producing will expand. So you don't need overproduction to expand a population. A biological drive to overproduce is in ALL CASES self-eliminating.

Yo, Jason.

Oh, no need to say you're sorry. I know we disagree about stuff 8) But I offered four versions of what a revolution could be. Could you specify if you disagreed with one, many or all?

Peace and Love and Empathy,

Matt
jefgodesky
Sun Oct 8th, 2006 at 09:02 PM
Political revolution of the starving masses.
Civilization's way of blowing off some steam, so yeah, they happen pretty regularly. Not that they change anything, so I don't think that's really "revolution" in the way we're talking here.

"Joyful revolution."
You took the words from my very mouth.

Massive, global change for the better.
Well, we're agreed that one's ... unlikely. I'm trying to keep a straight face here. :)

General adoption of a new paradigm.
Tipping points come from epidemiology, but I wish Gladwell had studied up a little more on the metaphor he was using before he wrote the book, because he hints all around it, but never gets down to the fact that so much of it is the ecology. If we use memetics and comparison to genetics, all kinds of variants are out there: it's a question of whether or not any selective pressure brings it to the fore. What would a tipping point of simplicity look like? What kind of ecology would it take to make simplicity "cool"? Basically, the question is, under what conditions does it serve you to live more simply? There's only one answer to that: collapse. So you can't avoid collapse with some tipping point of consciousness, because the only tipping point of consciousness that will get you there is collapse. It's like baking a cake as a strategy to avoid breaking any eggs, y'know?

So, that doesn't leave much possibility for any kind of revolution, does it? Like I said above and in more detail in the article, if we're waiting for revolution, we're going to be waiting an awfully long time. We ought instead to be preparing for evolution.

It's my new slogan: "Evolution, not revolution." I like to think of it as a less pretentious spin on Haeckel's old favorite, "Ontogeny recapitulates phylogeny."
Ghost
Mon Oct 9th, 2006 at 02:13 AM
Hey, Jason.

I agree for the most part. However:

"Jason" wrote:
What would a tipping point of simplicity look like? What kind of ecology would it take to make simplicity "cool"? Basically, the question is, under what conditions does it serve you to live more simply?


The tipping point can occur if people are doing it and other people see them doing it. People don't have to wait until the last second to make a change in their lives. We're not advocating simplicity. That's just about represing urges. We're advocating a different way of life that just happens to be less product rich.

[/quote]There's only one answer to that: collapse. So you can't avoid collapse with some tipping point of consciousness, because the only tipping point of consciousness that will get you there is collapse. It's like baking a cake as a strategy to avoid breaking any eggs, y'know?[/quote]

Dude, that's like sooooo 2005 8)

Either a collapse causes it or it causes a collapse. It's all good. We're on the same page. There is no avoiding collapse.

As for the "only way" part, see above.

"Jason" wrote:
...we're driven by biology to overconsume.


Niggah what?

"Jason" wrote:
So, that doesn't leave much possibility for any kind of revolution, does it?


Yeah, but Sinvar's a douche who says "wahhhh, wahhh, nothing will change because we all look up to big penises. Wahhh, wahhh, we're so flawed and lost in the woods that we couldn't find our way out of our own asses with a maglite, a road map and a team of Sherpas." It's brutal bullshit.

I don't trust any theory that assumes ALL humans are functionally retarded because their authors, by their own rationalle, are functionally retarded and I don't trust retards.

No revolution. Sure. No change possible. Nigga please.

"Jason" wrote:
"Evolution, not revolution."


I can dig it.

The New Tribal Evolution 8)

Peace and Love and Empathy,

Matt
memeshredder
Mon Oct 9th, 2006 at 11:29 AM
in this metaphor, could it be said that the virus and the cancer are types of genetic revolutions? programs that accelerate, whereas the organism itself alone is only capable of evolution
odb_fan_1
Tue Oct 10th, 2006 at 10:55 AM
"Ghost" wrote:
The records seem to be fairly clear that only a handful of cultures began to overproduce. One of them just happened to overrun the planet.



ignorant adam must ask:

when we talk about one culture, are we talking Quinn-ish and saying that all civilizations are the same? or are we talking about the mess-o-potamia one? because, obviously there was more than one civilization. does anyone know anything about the eastern civilizations? cuz, shit, i dont.


Quote:
Haeckel's old favorite, "Ontogeny recapitulates phylogeny."


We were just talking about that the other day. That's sweet we've got a name to associate with now!


Quote:
What I'm saying is that Savinar's point is completely true, but it's also bracketed within a more salient point that makes it not nearly as damning as Savinar would like it to be.


Oh, word.
jefgodesky
Tue Oct 10th, 2006 at 12:36 PM
"Matt" wrote:
The tipping point can occur if people are doing it and other people see them doing it. People don't have to wait until the last second to make a change in their lives. We're not advocating simplicity. That's just about represing urges. We're advocating a different way of life that just happens to be less product rich.


Simplicity isn't repressing anything; rather, it's a question of how you go about fulfilling urges. You're confusing simplicity and asceticism: two very different things. Ockham's Razor is a good example of simplicity: it's a matter of how you go about pursuing something you're after.

But on one level, you're absolutely right. All you need for that tipping point is for enough people to do it. The better question is: how do you get that many people to do it? Getting that kind of acceptance only happens when an idea is adaptive. Otherwise, you stay a fringe unless and until you become adaptive. In other words, it's all about the ecology.

"Matt" wrote:
Niggah what?


Sure. Peacocks have their feathers. Our stomachs don't tell us we're full until 20 minutes later. We're programmed to overconsume, because once upon a time we were subject to feast and famine, ups and downs, good times and bad, and when the times were good, they were very good. You ate up, because the bad times were coming.

"In 'The Original Affluent Society,' Marshall Sahlins" wrote:
The first, prodigality: the propensity to eat right through all the food in the camp, even during objectively difficult times, "as if", Lillian said of the Montagnais, "the game they were to hunt was shut up in a stable". Basedow wrote of native Australians, their motto "might be interpreted in words to the effect that while there is plenty for today never care about tomorrow. On this account an Aboriginal inclined to make one feast of his supplies, in preference to a modest meal now and another by and by." Le Jeune even saw his Montagnais carry such extravagance to the edge of disaster.

"Le Jeune" wrote:
In the famine through which we passed, if my host took two, three, or four Beavers, immediately, whether it was day or night, they had a feast for all neighbouring Savages. And if those People had captured something, they had one also at the same time; so that, on emerging from one feast, you went to another, and sometimes even to a third and a fourth. I told them that they did not manage well, and that it would be better to reserve these feasts for future days, and in doing this they would not be so pressed with hunger. They laughed at me. 'Tomorrow' (they said) 'we shall make another feast with what we shall capture.' Yes, but more often they capture only cold and wind.


A second and complementary inclination is merely prodigality's negative side: the failure to put by food surpluses, to develop food storage. For many hunters and gatherers, it appears, food storage cannot be proved technically impossible, nor is it certain that the people are unaware of the possibility. One must investigate instead what in the situation precludes the attempt. Gusinde asked this question, and for the Yahgan found the answer in the self same justifiable optimism. Storage would be "superfluous", "because through the entire year and with almost limitless generosity the she puts all kinds of animals at the disposal of the man who hunts and the woman who gathers. Storm or accident will deprive a family of these things for no more than a few days. Generally no one need reckon with the danger of hunger, and everyone almost any where finds an abundance of what he needs. Why then should anyone worry about food for the future... Basically our Fuegians know that they need not fear for the future, hence they do not pile up supplies. Year in and year out they can look forward to the next day, free of care...."


So, feasting even in hard times, and what we would consider a reckless disregard for future safety. We might even call this the biggest psychological divide between foragers and civilized: civilized folk are petrified of what the future might hold, and make entire industries out of trying to manage it (e.g., insurance). They accept meager living conditions in return for the perception of stability that agriculture, silos, and governments provide. Foragers, meanwhile, fully embrace what Jesus said in a radical way:

"Matthew 6:25-30" wrote:
Therefore I say unto you, Take no thought for your life, what ye shall eat, or what ye shall drink; nor yet for your body, what ye shall put on. Is not the life more than meat, and the body than raiment? Behold the fowls of the air: for they sow not, neither do they reap, nor gather into barns; yet your heavenly Father feedeth them. Are ye not much better than they? Which of you by taking thought can add one cubit unto his stature? And why take ye thought for raiment? Consider the lilies of the field, how they grow; they toil not, neither do they spin: and yet I say unto you, That even Solomon in all his glory was not arrayed like one of these. Wherefore, if God so clothe the grass of the field, which to day is, and to morrow is cast into the oven, shall he not much more clothe you, O ye of little faith?


So yes, humans are compelled by biology to overconsume, wherever and whenever we can. This is normally not a problem. The problem arises when we gain the means to also provide stability, because overconsumption is supposed to buttress us for harder times in the future. If we spend so much energy trying to make sure harder times never come, then we simply overconsume and overconsume, until we consume everything. But the problem isn't our behavior in and of itself, but also its context. In a radically different context, a previous adaptive behavior becomes maladaptive. That's all.

"Matt" wrote:
No revolution. Sure. No change possible. Nigga please.


Exactly my point. He wants to argue that no revolution is going to happen, and I can join him in that. But that's where he stops, leaving the impression that no change is possible at all. There are lots of changes that don't involve revolution.

Like evolution.

"ODB" wrote:
when we talk about one culture, are we talking Quinn-ish and saying that all civilizations are the same? or are we talking about the mess-o-potamia one? because, obviously there was more than one civilization. does anyone know anything about the eastern civilizations? cuz, shit, i dont.


I'm pretty sure Matt meant it in the Quinnian sense, because China & co. overproduced just as much.
random_vagrant
Thu Oct 19th, 2006 at 02:26 AM
I believe we're farther now (in our modern industrial age) then we've ever been before. For what little that is worth. With sustainability, organics, green buildings and other healthier systems slowly pentrating mainstream society. I dunno Im slowly feeling better. At the same time the more I read bits and pieces of Derrick Jensons work I wonder.....the more I walk around my city of 300,000 (a mere nothing compared where some of you are, I know) but I wonder. As I read just our local paper and hear about declining sea mammels, a dramatic spike in sea otter deaths and pipeline spill after pipline spill I wonder. But is that just my culture's infulence trying to control the passion that burns the need of change. Probably, but Im young, and since Ive become along I'm also not so self-convincing. Have/do we do enough to push the revolution forward? Even with Bioneers, the USGBC, Organic farmers, fair trade agreements, sustainable practises by some of the corporate world. Is it enough to change the ever moving destructive machine of Western and mainstream eastern culture's practices. Again...as I sit here poundin on my Mac, in my cushy dorm, with heat and plenty of electricity I wonder....
memeshredder
Thu Oct 19th, 2006 at 10:14 AM
it's all jsut global projection, of one man's utopia over another's.

if you dont' project, you can't conquer?
 
This page is part of the archives of the IshCon.org discussion forums, as they existed from November 2002 to January 2007. Some links and other content references may be outdated or broken. For more information about IshCon, visit www.ishcon.org.