| Poster and Date |
Post |
Ghost
Fri Sep 9th, 2005 at 01:53 PM |
Web site engine's code is Copyright © 2002 by PHP-Nuke. All Rights Reserved. PHP-Nuke is Free Software released under the GNU/GPL license.
I love the GNU/GPL and the Creative Commons Licence. I fucking HATE copyright.
I'm an actor, a writer and a musician and you know what? I hate copyright and I think that the free sharing of information is what will save us as a species. So suck on that anti-file sharing lobby :twisted:
Here's something I've always said about the recording industry:
...the business of the record industry is not to sell music, but rather to sell contrivances such as CDs and cassettes. To entice people to buy their contrivances, they record popular music onto them. When file sharing became a prominent practice, it threatened the industry by offering the musical content for free, bypassing the need to buy their expensive contrivances. If no one honoured their claim of ownership over the intellectual property rights of the musical content that they filled their contrivances with, then they would no longer be able to monopolise its use for the purpose of selling contrivances. The recording industry quickly and aggressively moved to outlaw file sharing and to punish those who did it. Once the act was deemed wrong, the act and all who did it, became evil themselves. This had the benefit of protecting their industry long enough for the record companies to put themselves into a position to be dominant in the file sharing industry at a later date, when it became possible to shift their industry from charging exorbitant amounts for contrivances to charging exorbitant amounts for offering file sharing services. In support of this, complex memes such as ‘artists will not be able to make a living if file sharing continues’ were introduced alongside more basic memes like ‘file sharing is evil’ in order to bolster the strength of the superstructure. The accompanying prohibitive law became ‘thou shalt not file share lest ye be punished’.
Peep dis.
It's sort of implied in the above that the recording industry provides, not INFORMATION, but rather, they provide a SERVICE. What service? The convenient packaging of information in an easily accessible form.
The thing about file sharing is that now the SERVICE is free.
File sharing DOES NOT infringe on copyright IN ANY WAY. What it infringes in is a corporations "right" to claim intelectual ownership of information so that it can be the SOLE PROVIDER of a SERVICE that allows you to access their MONOPOLISED information.
Why the fuck would you spend 99 cents to download a song when you could do the same damn thing for free unless there was a law that said you'll be thrown in jail... for sharing information... FOR SHARING INFOR-FUCKING-MATION :!: :?: :!:
Now this is what I find cool about GPL/CCL. It states that the information is free for anyone. You can use it, share it and create new products from it SO LONG AS you honour the copyright of the creator. Ie, you do not PLAGARISE and you always CREDIT THE CREATOR... the TRUE MEANING of copyright law.
What you CAN do is charge money for a SERVICE.
Providing CDs is still a service. Putting on a concert is still a service. Installing software on someone's computer is still a service. Teaching a yoga class is still a service.
THERE ARE NO RESTRICTIONS TO CHARGING FOR SERVICES UNDER GPL/CCL!
So the idea that creators won't make money is absolute bunk. All the Post-Information Age means is that the nature of the SERVICE INDUSTRY SURROUNDING information will change.
How fucking cool is that?
Peace and Love and Empathy,
Matt |
Ludi
Fri Sep 9th, 2005 at 02:13 PM |
you always CREDIT THE CREATOR... the TRUE MEANING of copyright law.
That's right, so why do you hate it? |
Ghost
Fri Sep 9th, 2005 at 02:27 PM |
Because of its corrupted meaning/use.
Peace and Love and Empathy,
Matt |
tonyz
Fri Sep 9th, 2005 at 02:35 PM |
also because it is the backbone of one of the strongest pyramid games, the entertainment industry.
In the post-information age, you have three sectors; food, technology and creativity.
Foods and tribes are the first part....
Creativity is what you create, technology is what you use to create it.
If you unlock the food only to lock up the technology or creativity, you are still playing, albeit more civilized, pyramid game.
If you unlock the food, and the technology, butstill lock up creativity, then you have feifdoms of the intelligentsia...
So you have to unlockthe technology,the creativity,and the foodif you want humans to prosper.
Love and Strength, TonyZ |
prometheus235
Fri Sep 9th, 2005 at 03:21 PM |
So the idea that creators won't make money is absolute bunk.
Before i go any farther, i request that you tell me quite specifically how the creator of X peice of art is supposed to make money if everyone who enjoys their movie, music, book or comic, won't pay for it.
I will give you a hint, though. Most major label bands make a substantial amount of their income from touring and merchandise. this sucks, b/c who wants to live in hotel rooms for nine months?
I also feel obligated to say that major labels generally suck. The stiff their musicians on royalties. For example, popular band incubus makes only 80 cents from every album sold. and that is a 5 way split of the 80cents. which blows. and they generally own the rights to x musician's creation.
Rory |
tonyz
Fri Sep 9th, 2005 at 03:29 PM |
Okay let's start withthis:
Fuck popular, corporate music.
Sure, there's lots of creative people doing lots of creative things, but it takes a PhD in economics to fully understand a recording contract(figuratively).
THe reason I say fuck the international distribution of art is the same reasonwhy I say fuck the international distribution of food.
It is bad forthe same reasons.
Localart,local music speaks to yourlandbase,it speaks moredirectly to your soul.
Thereissomesort of common human thread throughout the globe, but it's tenous at best to try and feel that through corporatized music.
This is my suggestion: Listen to the your local music scene.
Recorded music is still in it's infancy,and is changing rapidly. I"m not even sure it is good for you.
Instead of passively listening to the music of others, why not try intesively listening for the ebat of your own music?
Maybe your beat is strong enough to share?
_____________________-
besides, just as local, sustainable agriculture is a do or die situation for humans, so is the return to music back into the hands of musicians and out of the hands of middlemen.
Love and Strength, TonyZ |
prometheus235
Fri Sep 9th, 2005 at 03:36 PM |
i pretty much agree with tony, but you didn't answer my question.
and i also find your statement of Fuck Corporate Popular music to be very amusing and ironic in light of your Serj Tarkanian quote at the bottom of all your messages. SOAD doesn't count as popular or corporate? popular most definitely, and being signed by a major corporation definitely makes them corporate. doesn't make them suck musically though. care to revise that staement?
Rory |
Ghost
Fri Sep 9th, 2005 at 04:14 PM |
A painting is information. A gallery is a service. A jpeg of said painting is information. The website that hosts it and generates advertising revenue from banners is a service.
A song is information. A recording is information. A performance is information. Sheet music is information A concert is a service. A CD is a service. A song book is a service.
You're absolutely right, Rory. People will NOT pay for art (for the most part. I can always BUY a painting). What they always have and always will pay for is the SERVICE.
I can download any movie I want, but I shell out good money to see a lot of them in the theatre. Why? Because I'm paying for the service of being provided a monster theatre, other patrons and a wonking sound system.
I can film one of my plays, put it on the net and I can guarantee you that people will still come to see me in the theatre. Why? Because they're paying for the service of seeing the production live and the connection that an audience has with the performer on an blilateral emotional level.
Artists and I say this as one, are owed NOTHING for the simple act of creation. No more than a hunter is owed a deer for building a bow. If an artist wants to make a living they have to shlep just like everyone else. The industry paradigm changes all the time in EVERY artistic medium. The only historical similarity between Bards, Beethoven and Bitany Spears is that they all use music to make money. The WAY they make their livings is drastically different. This particular paradigm change is making it impossible for a handful of companies to monopolise the world's supply of art and to exploit the artists. People aren't lamenting its passage because art, which is 60 000 years older than copyright law, will suddenly die, but because there is a pant load of money at stake. I don't know where the paradigm will end up but I do know that change, at this point, is inevitable.
Can't make money selling CD's? Play more live shows. Can't make a living in one town? Tour. Nothing seems to work? Try something new.
The artist's life is and always has been, a changing and uncertain one. Artists must create opportunities for themselves. It's our lot in life.
People will ALWAYS pay for a service that lets them access information (is your internet service free?). You can buy or even download books, so why do you pay for university? Tens of thousands of dollars for university! Just so Matt Damon can punk you by saying, "How about them apples"? All the GPL/CCL is saying is that intellectual property, read the monopoly of information, is wrong. Besides, everyone who is a member is one by choice. It is an alliance of creators who are saying that the free flow of information will help society far more than the bottom line of AOL-Time Warner.
Peace and Love and Empathy,
Matt |
tonyz
Fri Sep 9th, 2005 at 04:16 PM |
Fuck popular, corporate music.
Sure, there's lots of creative people doing lots of creative things, but it takes a PhD in economics to fully understand a recording contract(figuratively).
Was it this statement you wanted revised? |
prometheus235
Fri Sep 9th, 2005 at 04:56 PM |
matt,
i follow what you are saying. I don't think that because you play a song you should be guarenteed living. and i pretty much agree with everything you said. but this is where i have the problem.
intellectual property, read the monopoly of information, is wrong.
so, everything i write on paper is no longer mine? every song i write is now yours? conversley, anyone is free to perform your plays for money without your say-so? am i free to sell copies of the davinci code with my name as author?
if intellectual property is wrong, then anyone can steal and lie, use your ideas, make a billion bucks, and you can't say anything. Example, I spend 5 years writing a book. you read it, steal it, put your name on it, sell it and make 10 million bucks off of my work. Intellectual property is wrong, so you actually did the right thing by profiting off my 5 years of labor?
sounds to me like profiting off the backs of others. and this is from the same two guys who told me i am responsible for the exploitation of africa b/c i own a tv.
don't get me wrong, you want to give away copies of your cd, that's cool. i myself prefer some returns on all the money i spent recording and post-production.
And Tony, i phrased the question wrong. It should have been:
do you really say fuck popular corporate music, or just when it serves your needs? do you mean it, or were just trying to sound cool? you can't expect to make a blanket statement like that and not expect someone to call you out on it when you quote a popular corporate band at the end of every post.
Rory |
Ghost
Fri Sep 9th, 2005 at 05:20 PM |
Hey, Rory.
I feel you man, but you're not getting me totally.
so, everything i write on paper is no longer mine? every song i write is now yours? conversley, anyone is free to perform your plays for money without your say-so? am i free to sell copies of the davinci code with my name as author?
Not quite. Of a fashion. Sort of. No.
Anything you create is your creation. That's what copyright was orignially intended to protect (and that was a basic assumption prior to the law). Intellectual property says more than that. It says someone can OWN information and monopolise its use. Like Happy Birthday. Fuck that! So if you write a song, then you are the creator of the song. If you register that song with the GPL/CCL then anyone who wants to use it must clearly state that you wrote it or be prosecuted.
Every song you write and register with the GPL/CCL is available to me. If I want to download it for free and listen to it, I can. But what effect will that exposure have on me? If I film a movie and I want to use it, I can, so long as I credit you and so long as I register my film with the GPL/CCL (if I don't, I'll be prosecuted).
Anyone could perform a play that I wrote, make money with it and not give me a dime. But everyone would know that I wrote it. This, in concert with the last point, conveys the benefit of CROSS-POLINATION. Someone who puts on my play is advertising me as a playwright. Now more people know that I'm a good playwright (or a shit one 8) ). I download a song, dig the band and then decide to check out their show when they swing into town. Your song in my film reaches more people and gets your name out more than your song alone. You could turn around and sample my film in one of your songs. It works both ways. Besides, nothing is stopping me from producing my own play and making a buck.
You couldn't sell "The Davinci Code" by Rory without being prosecuted. Why? Because you didn't credit the creator.
(As a side note, if you don't want your creations to be protected by the GPL/CCL, then don't register them. No gun to your head here.)
don't get me wrong, you want to give away copies of your cd, that's cool. i myself prefer some returns on all the money i spent recording and post-production.
I wouldn't give away copies of my CDs. That'd be foolish. But the way the industry is going I won't be ABLE to give away copies of a CD just like you can't give away an 8-track today. What I would be doing is saying, "what can I do NOW in order to make a living?"
As long as someone is willing to buy your CD's, I'm sure you'll produce them and make money. But if you aren't following market trends then you're dead in the water. Adam Smith once wrote, "Where production reigns, prosperity. Where revenue, idleness."
What's being said is that you can't monopolise the use of what's ON those CDs.
You're making the assumption that you are OWED money simply because you recorded those CDs. What I'm saying is that an artist is owed NOTHING. You wouldn't do it in the first place if there was no industry there to carry them. Industry paradigm changes all the time. It's changed a million times up to this point. Artists don't have a leg to stand on when they complain that it's changing again.
Dig?
Peace and Love and Empathy,
Matt |
Nene
Fri Sep 9th, 2005 at 07:47 PM |
Hey --
[note: i started writing this a couple hours ago... but i think its mostly still relevant :wink: ]
Matt hit some nerves, eh?
Open Source does NOT prevent you from selling your materials -- whether a piece of art, music, literature, software or anything else.
What it says is that you cannot prevent the free exchange of your ideas after you have released them.
So a painter will ALWAYS sell his paintings.
But if someone else wants to make a poster using his images... that is fair game. Because the 'service' aspect is the printing and distrbution of the poster. And the poster still has to give intellectual credit to the original artist.
Same way with every other creative/intellectual endeavor. You have EVERY right to sell what you create but you do not have the right to monopolize that idea, just because it was (maybe) original. (Maybe, refering to the old adage: Average artists imitate their predecessors, the truly gifted simply steal ideas outright)
An important thing to note here... it was mentioned that a band only gets .50 per CD they sell, split X ways amongst the band. Open Source is an idea that gets rids of record companies not artists' income. I wrote a piece on this some time ago: Copy Write?
Janene |
MidnightBoos
Fri Sep 9th, 2005 at 08:31 PM |
remember to breathe, Matt. :)
MB |
tonyz
Sun Sep 11th, 2005 at 10:43 AM |
just when it serves my needs |
Ludi
Sun Sep 11th, 2005 at 10:52 AM |
I freely distribute my artwork on the 'net, but I would be sad if someone were copying my work and selling it. :( |
Nene
Sun Sep 11th, 2005 at 11:01 AM |
Hey --
I have a question Lynn... would you feel sad if someone were selling 'reproductions' of your work, with your name on it, and as a result (and the way you found out) people started contacting you to commission original pieces?
This is hard to get your hands around, I know. I battled, in my mind, about whether to release my software under GPL... but I finally decided that I am not hurt by others using my work... so long as I get what I need (an income...), the rest should be moot (in my opinion)
Janene |
Ludi
Sun Sep 11th, 2005 at 11:27 AM |
Since people aren't commissioning me to do original work, I don't have a way of answering that, it's a situation foreign to me. I'd be sad if someone else were making money from my work when I wasn't making money from it, I think. |
Nene
Sun Sep 11th, 2005 at 11:43 AM |
Hey --
Yeah... exactly.
That's why, I think, this particular issue is so hard. We've been conditioned all our lives to believe certain things... and conditioned so well that it is inconceivable that sharing (which is at its core what we are talking about) could also be financially profitable.
I don't know what the answer is... as far as how we can best approach some of these issues, but I keep thinking that its time to put my pocketbook where my mouth is... so I'm gonna go ahead with GPL and cross my fingers :wink: I've read enough that I am intellectually convinced, but its gonna take some time for me to be emotionally convinced, I think.
Janene |
JCamasto
Sun Sep 11th, 2005 at 12:55 PM |
I'm trying to finds some parallels; let me see if I get lucky and find some meaning....
(BTW, you know my father made his career as an intellectual property (IP) attorney? - this thread is one that he'd fight hard.)
For simplicity, I'll call all IP "art".
If we're talking about folks that are trying to make a living exclusively from their art, then I can see the difficulty moving from our existing paradigm, to "open source".
I think the transition may be easier for those that make art for their own sake, and/or for art's sake. Say, instead of "giving away" art, someone gives away some money or service or skill. This is not unusual at all, and people do it all the time. I guess the distinction is that few are likely to give away ALL of their art, money, services or skills.
But the point that I'm trying to get to, is that when folks give their art away (or money/service/skill), quite often they are giving it to people they know, or are part of a common association. It has to do with living locally, building community, knowing those people that you help and care about...
Would most folks be upset if someone they associated with turned around and profited from their free art? Hard to say, depends on the circumstances - maybe not if that profit got rolled back into things for the common good of the association...
But it becomes even more difficult to figure when their art is given away to folks they'll never know or meet. I imagine software (or anything perfectly reproduced digitally) is an example of such art. Then it seems that the artist must be more altruistic, essentially extending the boundary of their "localized community" to that of, potentially, the whole world. While this is exceedingly nice, I don't know how realistic it is to expect of most people.
So, after that rambled windup - the pitch is:
If you need (or want) to make your living selling your art to literally thousands of people you'll never know or meet, people well beyond your local community or circles of associations - then I'd guess that IP law (hell, ALL man-made law) is your friend, and open source is a bitter pill to swallow.
But if your hanging at this website, you're probably wondering how long a globalized, monolithic scenario can exist to support such a bizarre way to make a living...
-Jim |
Nene
Sun Sep 11th, 2005 at 02:09 PM |
Hey --
I would suggest that framing it as 'giving away your art' is part of the problem.
You are NOT giving away your art. Rather, you accepting that when you create something, you can only expect to sell it once.
That varies, depending on the kind of art we are talking about, so bear with me while I break it down a little.
If you cast a pot, you will only be able to sell it once, correct? So you are selling a product.
If you record a record album, you can do several things: (1)you can sell that recording, en todo to a distributor, you adds a service (media, distribution, adverstising) and keeps any profit above the initial purchase price. ((2)Right now, BTW, basically, an artist gives thier recording to a distributor, in exchange for peanuts for ever. Sometimes, those peanuts add up hansomely, but that doesn't change the fact that its still peanuts) (3)Or, you can make a recording, post it online (yourself, or through a service) and sell it as a download. You could sell it for double or even triple the peanuts the distributor is currently offering... but you are also providing your own distirbution and advertising. (4)OR, you can give the recording away for free as an advertising device in and of itself, then use live shows as your income generator. The Grateful Dead (and those that have followed) have made a career of doing both (2) and (4). The recorinding industry gets its cut via studio recordings published in the traditional manor. But the fans don't have to shell out big bucks in order to enjoy the music. They can just download via file sharing any live cut ever recorded, by any fan for the last thirty odd years. (Before the internet age, fans would make tapes and then sell, trade or give away those tapes.) And the band encourages this.
In both cases (3) and (4) you have to acknowledge that once something is downloaded, you have no further control over reproduction.
Now look at software. Software is both a product AND a service. And it is indefinately reproducable, just like the music example. If I GPL my software, there is nothing stopping Joe-IT from looking at the code and figuring our how to 'steal' it for their client. (By figuring out how to license it) In order to do so, he will need to invest time in creating a data entry function (as I will be providing this aspect of the product as a service to my clients. So now he needs to do it.
On the flip, some corporation or independant developer, can NOT take my code, change the name and then sell it is thier own. This is what GPL prevents.
Does it hurt me if Joe-IT does this? IP advocates say yes... that he is taking sales away from me that otherwise I would receive. But this is a huge logical jump. There is NOTHING guarateeing that I would receive this sale. Additionally, if I don't get that sale, I am also not investing time in the service ASPECT OF THE PRODUCT. Which to me, says that I'm not really losing anything in the deal.
Fine Arts -- this one I have no experience with, so I'm just applying the same principals to what I know... if I'm missing key elements, somebody let me know :wink:
An artist paints an oil. Sells that painting. Created once, sold once end of story? Traditionally, no, because if someone wants to create a poster, they need to purchase the rights to the image. In my mind, this is charging someone to advertise your product(or skill). The artist has already received payment for their work. The person laying out, printing and distributing the poster needs to make money for thier services also, right? No one seems to be disputing that. So the question is this... what is in the artists best interest? To charge a lot of money for those rights, reducing the chances that it happens, or increasing the price of the finished product (and therefore reducing the number of people that have access to it)... or charging nothing and having more people influenced by your work? One other point here... I don't know for certain, but I seem to recall that rights to much of the fine art out there, is not owned by the artist, but by some company, agent, distributor, gallery, whatever (I mean, who gets money for a poster of Saturday in the Park? Anyone?
Fianl category, same note as the last, graphic arts. Here we run into an intersection between software and traditional art. It is totally reproducable, by the artist, so its not valid to say that it can only be sold once, so how do you address it?
My guess, is that it will end up being like Lithographs. Limited Editions, Artist Signed etc will be collectable art with changing values by demand. But posters will just be posters....
So GPL does not ask anyone to give up thier livelihood, or getting paid for what they do on any level. It asks what are our priorities, and what is the actual intersection between common good and individual good (ie win-win situation) It operates on the assumption that (like tribalism/mutual support systems, etc) sharing is good because in the end, each individual benefits more. There is the 1% of individuals that get insanely wealthy from their creative efforts, and that may or may not continue to happen. But the other 99% end up with a greater share of wealth than they would have under traditional IP laws.
Janene |
Ludi
Sun Sep 11th, 2005 at 02:49 PM |
But I haven't sold the art at all, not even once. So, it would make me sad if someone made money selling reproductions of it when I didn't make money from it one time. |
JCamasto
Sun Sep 11th, 2005 at 03:29 PM |
In the last two days:
I gave away my "art" to maintain cars, I gave away materials & supplies and the use of tools, I gave away food, I gave away money, I shared the use of my home, I gave away music - both live (mine) and recorded (others), I gave away weed...
Next I'm goin' to give away several days worth of effort to make a newsletter.
I gave this all to folks that I know, personally (well, most of 'em) - and who have/will benefit and profit at my expense.
But I'm not saddened, I'm pleased! I'm confident all that "I gave away" will find it's way back to me - in the form of other things I need, when I need them...
I believe this is a part of "living in the hands of the gods".
Those same two days I was given: food and drink, access to drums & PV panels, a bootlegged Tom Brown lecture, an offer to obtain some tickets while I'm away in PA, help with my business, piles of opinions and information....
-----
Nene: I think you pounced on my supposed "framing" and missed my wild, rambled train of thought leading up to... (and not clearly articulated):
This whole IP thing is a very new and bizarre outcropping of our culture. Lose the industrialization of production and distribution for IP (books, music, software, design, novelty, process, materials) and lose the mechanism of the state to defend such an idea as IP....
Lose all that cultural infrastructure and... Good luck trying to make a living selling your IP - without taking it to the streets yourself.
(Regarding framing - just because it's "framed" (isn't everything framed in some way?) - doesn't mean it's flawed.)
-Jim |
Ludi
Sun Sep 11th, 2005 at 03:41 PM |
I'm glad you're happy with that, but I'm not seeing the parallel between your situation and the situation I posit. I'm not seeing the parallel between me "giving away" my art and someone else making money from selling copies of it, and your situation. Sorry to be dense. But what is coming back to me from someone else making money from my art? I'm not seeing it. |
Nene
Sun Sep 11th, 2005 at 08:06 PM |
Hey --
Did I hit a nerve, Jim? Didn't mean too... I'm just trying to express the internal debate I have been running for the last six months :D
So I guess the question, in my mind, when it comes to GPL, is not whether someone else is making money, but rather how is that impacting MY ability to make money (or more precisely, my abilitiy to make a living.)
Lynn, yes definately.
If someone takes your work off of the internet and makes money with it -- while you make none... I can see your point.
Do you also see the other side of it? Maybe you never have (or don't normally) work on commission -- but if someone made money from your work and in the long run, it ended up providing you with a living (through 'advertsising' exposure), then how would you feel about it?
Another question -- if this concerns you, why do you choose to put your work out on the net?
Janene |
Ludi
Sun Sep 11th, 2005 at 09:51 PM |
If I film a movie and I want to use it, I can, so long as I credit you and so long as I register my film with the GPL/CCL
No, you can't, unless the songwriter specifically grants you that license.
Anyone could perform a play that I wrote, make money with it and not give me a dime.
No, that's not true.
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Every license
* applies worldwide * lasts for the duration of the work's copyright * is not revocable"
http://creativecommons.org/
if someone made money from your work and in the long run, it ended up providing you with a living (through 'advertsising' exposure), then how would you feel about it?
People make money from my professional work all the time; I'm only paid once for it, while the people who buy it get to make money from it indefinitely, because that's the nature of the business. |
JCamasto
Sun Sep 11th, 2005 at 10:33 PM |
Did I hit a nerve, Jim? Didn't mean to... I'm just trying to express the internal debate I have been running for the last six months :D
Naw - I guess I need to work on my text communication skills, as always.
(boy, it is so easy to pick text apart, line by line - as opposed to listening "live" to someone's whole story, with intonation and gesture, ain't it?)
I was just trying to poorly illustrate my belief that IP is a cultural construct, and IP is in reality no more special than "any joe's" expenditure of life energy (time, resources & creativity).
No more special than a beaver's dam or a bird's song...
If we didn't have the cultural infrastructure to mass produce and mass distribute IP (for profit), would we even have thunk it up?
-Jim |
Ghost
Mon Sep 12th, 2005 at 09:59 AM |
Wow, that's a lot of info to sift through.
Thatnks for posting that stuff, Lynn. It clears things up. For me, it's not so much the details but the intention that excites me. Janene hit the nail on the head. This argument is about sharing vs hoarding.
I just wanted to address the "give away" angle. Every year, industry spends BILLIONS of dollars to produce 30 second short films and then pays BILLIONS of dollars to PAY television stations to play their short films FOR FREE. Why in God's name would they do that if not for some return? The obvious answer is that they attract customers through advertising. File sharing is free advertising. The difference is that it's the product that is distributed.
It's not an either/or argument. Some people just plain aren't going to get behind something like this. That's fine. But the fact of the matter is that trends are beyond any central control; expecially market trends. They don't always make sense and sometimes they're dangerous (like the SUV trend) but the fact of the matter is that they are unstoppable and an INTEGRAL part of the free-market system. The trend right now is towards sharing information. People who don't follow the trend will be out-competed against in the marketplace. Simple as that.
I think the largest counter argument is that "artists won't be able to make a living." That's hyperbole to the Nth degree. Art: 60 000 years old. Intelectual property: less than 100 years old. How anyone can say art can't live without monopoly of information is beyond me. Anyone who says artists have made their living following the exact same paradigm for the last 60 000 years is just plain misinformed.
Fortunately for me, I embrace this change because I view it as positive. VERY positive. I am an artist and I DO want to make my living exclusively through my art and collaborations. I think that it will be EASIER to do in a world where artists can share everything. Some people don't get it and some people fear it. That's their right. Me, I'm gonna keep on keeping on.
Peace and Love and Empathy,
Matt |
Ludi
Mon Sep 12th, 2005 at 12:07 PM |
What I like about Creative Commons is that the artist can choose which rights they want to grant to the public, it is not automatic. If they want to "give it all away" they can do that, or they can just give it for free distribution but not commercial reproduction and sale, etc. |
Ghost
Mon Sep 12th, 2005 at 12:22 PM |
Personally, I hope that eventually that is eliminated and it simply becomes an unregulated free-flow of information. But that's me 8) Until then, I will happily take this step in the right direction.
Peace and Love and Empathy,
Matt |
Ludi
Mon Sep 12th, 2005 at 01:02 PM |
I dunno, Matt...
Wouldn't you be sad if Famous Director made a movie of your script, changed it all around so it didn't much resemble your concept, yet went ahead and gave you attribution?
"Hey, Matt, didn't you write the screenplay for that movie that said we should kill all the black people?"
I would be sad, if it were me.... |
Ghost
Mon Sep 12th, 2005 at 01:27 PM |
Good point. I would be sad. But I probably wouldn't release my script until I had produced it. So if someone wanted to remake it, more power to them. Also, if I wrote and produced a play in Montreal and someone wanted to produce it in LA, I'd be thrilled. My name in lights in LA! Or if I COULDN'T produce in Montreal but someone could in LA, that might be a good alternative for me too. Or if I released a recording at my expense and people who listened to it for free in New York came to see my show when I toured through there, that would make me happy as well. Another posibility would be that if someone stole something from my office or posted something on the net without my permission and someone produced it, that would make me sad. So there are a world of possibilities.
But I'm interested in an UNREGULATED world, not an UNSCRUPULOUS one. Regulation I can affect. Scruples I cannot.
Artists have always been plagued by plagarists. The reason there are three versions of Hamlet is because people used to go to the Globe, watch a production and then write it out so they could produce it themselves. The folio was put together after Shakespeare died so they weren't sure which was the right one. Same with Taming of a/the Shrew.
So there are always going to be unscrupulous people. C'est la vie. I just don't think that we need laws to regulate things.
There have always been social taboos that regulate plagarism. There's never been a society, that I know of, that thought plagarism was 'right'. Also, most societies seem to share the idea that if you uses something that someone else did, that you should give them credit.
There will ALWAYS be ways for artists to make a living. It just so happens that the way we've done things for the last few decades is going the way of the dodo.
Yes, if there is no regulation, some people will plagarise and abuse the system. But people don't abuse the system right now? You can't base your policy on the fact that a few people will abuse it; which they will.
But sometimes manipulating someone elses's work can be great. Look at sampling. What about "Kung Pow"? Or MST3K?
I just believe, and the evidence seems to point in that direction, that regulation harms more than it helps. I think that hoarding information is unscrupulous. To paraphrase Sid Meyer, "beware he who keeps you from information, for in his heart he dreams himself your master." But that's me.
Peace and Love and Empathy,
Matt |
jefgodesky
Mon Sep 12th, 2005 at 01:40 PM |
Jeff Vail's "'Creative Commons'? No thanks."
Actually, the idea that an artist in any way "owns" her work is very recent, even among ownership-obsessed Takers. I tend to reject the notion. |
tonyz
Mon Sep 12th, 2005 at 01:53 PM |
Well think though,
Art, asit is defined in Classical European terms, is something smart people make for rich people.
Every masterpiece you canname that was created up to the romantic period was commissioned.
They didn't create art for themselves, they sold their skills to the highest bidder.
Ars Gratia Artis is very new, and actuallly a symbol of this rise of the bohemians, the same people that gave us universal sufferage, acid, and the Pussycrats.
Leonardi DaVinci did some of his best work as a lowly servant for a rich, ignorant, and repugnant "duke."
Why would anyone want to owntheir own art, anyway?
Isn't supposed tobe about sharingthebeauty of the human experience with others?
Can't we all see why selling art is a wrong in itself?
I love Jimforthe points he jsut made aboveabout giving things in free will,because he knows that they will be returned to him in ways he cannot providefor himself.
As for you capitilistic artists; you know, you are jsut playingthe same game, except instead of making a product, you are manufacturing ideas. In the capitalism that you operate under it is assumed that your work is yours to sell, and oyu have all the Law and God behind you on that, what do theoretical (other than tribal) situations matter?
In a tribe, if you are an artist, you don't sell anything. You make the place more beautiful, and you get fed. It's that simple.
Love and Strength, TonyZ |
Ludi
Mon Sep 12th, 2005 at 04:46 PM |
deleted |
MxM
Fri Oct 7th, 2005 at 03:58 PM |
I feel like I will be the only one here who disagrees completely with the original poster.
Say I am the owner of the company and I have invented a new way to do something (say a new robot). I had created IP.
Now I believe that I should have the following options available to me: 1) Release IP publicly and give anyone permission to do exactly the same way as I do 2) Give permission to reproduce the item, but license it. 3) Do not give permission to reproduce the item, manufacture it myself, or contract someone to manufacture it. 4) Sell all the rights to someone else
A) I do not see why any of those options should not be available to me. B) I do not see why say a computer program, or music, or movie should be any different.
In short, I think that it is the author who should decide what way to distribute his material, not consumers.
The problem of the recording industry is not the problem of the IP rights, but the problem of monopoly. |
jefgodesky
Fri Oct 7th, 2005 at 04:05 PM |
That is because you've grown up in a culture that believes that the creator of an idea owns that idea. This is a very recent innovation--and a radical expansion of the previous (also recent) concept of "ownership" at all. It is found only in the most virulent of Taker societies. I do not believe that any concept of "ownership" whatsoever has any place in a healthy society, much less this radical idea of "intellectual property," which is even more bizarre.
The strangest thing of all is, I'm the radical. Reiterating the philosophy that held sway over the entire human race for millions of years, to be abandoned only by one culture, and that only a century ago, makes me a radical. *snicker* M'kay, whatever. :) |
MxM
Fri Oct 7th, 2005 at 05:11 PM |
This is a very recent innovation--and a radical expansion of the previous (also recent) concept of "ownership" at all. But it does not necessary make it wrong. Any concepts good or bad were new sometimes.
That is because you've grown up in a culture that believes that the creator of an idea owns that idea. And this is simply wrong. Up to age 24 I lived in the country called USSR, where even the term IP did not exist. My position was formed via thoughtful considerations. Ishmael is one of my favorite books, which helped me in this process, though I think that the conclusions that I made were not exactly what the author wanted.
I do not believe that any concept of "ownership" whatsoever has any place in a healthy society
Define "healthy society". My position is that the chances of survival is higher for the human society that has "ownership" idea. The key word in this statement is "human". Some other alien civilization may function better without money or ownership, but for humans it is not so. The proof is that all civilizations that exists now have this idea build into the societies, and they outcompete the others. |
jefgodesky
Fri Oct 7th, 2005 at 05:23 PM |
Ah, you grew up in the USSR? Interesting. But, the USSR was formed in reaction to the ideas of ownership in the West, and thus, they remained very firmly in the public consciousness. Rather the same way that our revulsion at cannibalism makes us much more likely to be cannibals.
At any rate, a "healthy" society does not simply refer to one that can murder every other kind of society; it must also be able to keep itself going. That is something our society cannot do.
There's nothing new under the sun, and that has been true for a very long time. Our ideas of intellectual property were created to stimulate more art and science; instead, they have throttled both. Shakespeare's plays would never be legal today. As the adage goes, "Average poets borrow; great poets steal." We are left with the most mediocre of art. Science lives or dies on the free exchange of ideas. Every conference I've been to--admittedly, primarily history and archaeology--has bemoaned how copyright laws have strangled their research, by keeping them from circulating their papers, or by keeping them from getting the materials they need.
When one steps back and examines the notion of “owning” something, the abstraction becomes readily apparent. Ownership represents nothing more than a power relationship—the ability to control. The tribal institution of “Ownership by use” on the other hand, suggests simply that one can only “own” those things that they put to immediate, direct and personal use to meet basic needs—and not more. A society crosses the memetic Rubicon when it accepts the abstraction that ownership can extend beyond the exclusive needs of one individual for survival. Abstract ownership begins when society accepts a claim of symbolic control of something without the requirement of immediate, direct and personal use. Hierarchy, at any level, requires this excess, abstract ownership—it represents the symbolic capital that forms the foundation of all stratification.
Most of us feel wronged when something is stolen from us, but why? Much of it is acculturation, but what bothers is most is the denial of our own use. As I write this on my laptop, Giuli is using my desktop. This does not bother me in the least, though by Lockesian logic it should. After all, is she not violating my sacred rights as "owner"? I do not mind, because it does not impinge on my own use. If I wanted to use it right now, the situation would change, but so long as another's actions do not change my ability to use those resources, it doesn't bother me.
The theft of material goods leaves us feeling wronged because it robs us of our ability to use a given resource. If someone broke in and took my computer, I would feel wronged, because I could no longer use my computer. It is not that my "right to ownership" has been violated that bothers me; it is the violation of my "right to use."
Such a distinction may seem like splitting hairs at first, but there are important--if subtle--implications. One is that the "right to property" is devalued from the realm of sacred rights, to mere practicality. Robbing someone of their use of some object is no longer "wrong," but simply "mean." Enforcement of laws against theft is no longer upholding some moral order; it is merely oiling the gears of a smooth society.
The implications are profound for intellectual property. The RIAA and MPAA have recently recruited the U.S. courts in a campaign against sharing over the internet. They call such sharing "theft," based on the speculation that every download is a lost sale. This, despite the empirical evidence that file sharing has no effect on sales, to say nothing of common sense, forms the entire basis for their claim, ignoring the very real difference between potential and actual loss. Yet they have managed to prevail, and their unfounded presumptions are now accepted as fact, with an increasing and dismal precedent forming the law on this issue.
Thus, sharing is illegal. But it is by no means immoral. The RIAA and MPAA argue that it is, sometimes supporting such bogus evidence as summarized above, but ultimately relying on their sacred rights of "ownership." If we accept, instead, a paradigm of "property by use," this issue is transformed. If I have a song, and someone copies that song, then my ability to listen to that song again is in no way compromised. Neither the RIAA's nor the MPAA's members have lost any of the discs they have imprinted data on. No one has lost anything, but someone--the one with the copy--has gained something in that copy. If we believe in "property by ownership," sharing is wrong, because one's ownership has been violated. If we believe in "property by use," though, sharing is good.
We are currently seeing the logic of ownership unravel as computers provide a purely abstract environment for these ideas to play out, forcing us to refine our thinking and be more precise with what, exactly, we believe. It gives the lie to "property by ownership" with increasingly draconian measures such as the DMCA, and forcing its proponents often to rely on completely fabricated evidence.
"Property by use," on the other hand, was the pragmatic reigning paradigm of human society throughout our evolution, abandoned only recently with the rise of civilization and hierarchy. It is a practical arrangement that promotes the idea of sharing--something we instinctively see as "good," because of its long history as a basic underpinning of our society and survival. "Property by ownership" ends up being an unfounded mythology that must be maintained in spite of all facts and logic; "property by use" ends up being a practical, reasonable understanding of property rights that fits nicely with our moral intuitions. "Property by ownership" is new, untested, and already falling apart at the seams; "property by use" has been proven by two million years of human evolution.
We own nothing; we have no "right to property," and nature is not ours to take and do with as we please. We can use the things we need, just like any other animal, within the same bounds as any other animal. But to pretend we have some kind of divinely protected claim to anything is simply delusional. |
ProjectPurity
Fri Oct 7th, 2005 at 05:25 PM |
oh geeze..... you haven't read or either haven't properly understood (and i use that word lightly so as not to offend) Ishmael, have you, MxM?
So you think a strong healthy human society is one that is capable of limitless expansion by outcompeting other cultures? If you disagree, say so...
I guess i could start in about how civilization isn't healthy at all... humans, in general, do not like to be exploited... that's civilizations main game!
You mentioned about how humans need money.... that's only a recent thing. Before that it was all barter and favors, seems to me... I've heard of an ape brood where the females basically prostitute themselves for favors by men... i guess i'm ok with that too. Point being, it's NOT a human requirement... it's a civilization requirement, or at least a necessary innovation which is required for civilization to exist on this large of a scale.
The take home point is that you're ideas aren't wrong at all, as long as you're fine with that, go ahead... base a society around intellectual property rights and blah blah blah.... civilizations all over the world have done it.... but I want something different, and i'll make it happen for myself and some others. |
MxM
Mon Oct 10th, 2005 at 12:25 PM |
oh geeze..... you haven't read or either haven't properly understood (and i use that word lightly so as not to offend) Ishmael, have you, MxM?
I have read the book twice, I understood quite well what the author wanted to say. And I disagree with rather large part of his conclusions (not only in this book but in the others as well).
So you think a strong healthy human society is one that is capable of limitless expansion by outcompeting other cultures? If you disagree, say so...
No, I think that there is no good unified definition of "healthy society". Each person can put different meaning into it. Society with the largest chance of survival, is much better defined term. At least you can compare two of civilizations and say which one is better using this parameter - survival.
So, using surviving parameter, I would say that yes, the one that is capable of exponential expansion by outcompeting other cultures, is better suited for survival, UNTIL IT HITS THE LIMIT. Then the survival parameters changes.
We are living in interesting time. We are about to hit that limit. So in order to be best survivor, we need to either find new ways to expand (space, ocean, underground), or adjust our economy to be able to sustain in limited space, and expand in some other ways (art, science, virtual space) until we find the way to continue expansion (FTL engines, parallel universe, or whatever). |
jefgodesky
Mon Oct 10th, 2005 at 12:37 PM |
So .... you have a society that goes on happily and sustainably for millions of years in one corner ... and an uncontrollable, raging behemoth of a culture which, in its suicidal death-throes, kills the other .... and it's the suicidal behemoth that's the "healthy" culture that we should take our cues from on matters of morality and ethics? The one with the Holocaust, and the worst mass extinction in the planet's history, and all of that?
Ooooo ... kay. As I put it to a vile little fundie that once trolled Anthropik (not saying you're vile or a fundie, just that I get to reuse my old words rather than type this out again):
On population, you are correct. Those few, perverse and unworkable cultures which are currently disintegrating before our very eyes also suffer from severe, systemic overpopulation problems--being among the most primary reasons for their inevitable collapse in the very near future. I do not see why this means that their arbitrary rules should be counted more heavily. If anything, it is proof that their particular taboos are an unworkable, inherently unstable configuration. I would think that anything they believe should be held up to suspicion precisely because they believe it . |
MxM
Mon Oct 10th, 2005 at 01:14 PM |
So .... you have a society that goes on happily and sustainably for millions of years in one corner ... and an uncontrollable, raging behemoth of a culture which, in its suicidal death-throes, kills the other .... and it's the suicidal behemoth that's the "healthy" culture that we should take our cues from on matters of morality and ethics? The one with the Holocaust, and the worst mass extinction in the planet's history, and all of that?
It is NOT healthier. It is better survivor. The example that you gave is not quite right. First, you do not need to kill another culture - you convert it or incorporate it into you culture. Second, may I remind you that the culture that produced the holocaust did not survive even 50 years? The longest lived culture/empire is the Roman empire and it was quite tolerable to different nations/religions (for that time).
More over, as long as there are significantly different cultures, I think there will be competition between them (not nessesery wars, but wars as well) and the weakest cultures will be out-competed (not killed, out-competed). And no one can stop it.
I do not know if finally only a single culture wins - it looks a bit dangerous because of the possible stagnation without competition, but the process itself is very "natural" and reminds the evolution in nature.
Edit: And please, define the word "healthy" as in the phrase healthy society, otherwise, I do not understand what exactly do you mean. |
Nene
Mon Oct 10th, 2005 at 01:32 PM |
Hey --
This looks a bit like standard 'Survival of the Fittest' Fallacy.
For a long time, this misunderstanding of Evolutionary Theory has created havoc... Survival of the fittest, does NOT mean the strongest, most aggressive, most selfish, etc. Because those traits are not neccessarily the most advantageous for a species to have.
Likewise, when talking about cultures (again, being very careful that we do not slip into Social Darwinism's fallacies), the most successful culture is not neccessarily the one that can dominate all of its competition... not if that very competition leads to eventual failure. The 'most successful' cultures would be those able to survive sustainably, with the ability to adapt to changing situations and the ability to do all of this 'under the radar', so to speak, of the dominating culture.
Just that, right there, sort of makes me look to the Innuit and other cold-adapted cultures (because those are the areas that 'we' are least interested in).... they seem to have all of those characteristics, while our own culture does not....
Janene |
jefgodesky
Mon Oct 10th, 2005 at 02:07 PM |
The healthiest culture is that which is most sustainable, and most adapted to human nature. I don't differentiate between Nazi German Western industrialism, contemporary American Western industrialism, contemporary Japanese Western industrialism, and neocolonial, globalized Western industrialism. The differences are incredibly superficial. They are all one culture. There's more diversity among the San than among them. |
MxM
Mon Oct 10th, 2005 at 02:47 PM |
Survival of the fittest, does NOT mean the strongest, most aggressive, most selfish, etc. Because those traits are not necessarily the most advantageous for a species to have. This is exactly my view! This is exactly what I am saying. The survivor DOES NOT mean the most aggressive or selfish. Did I anywhere applied that? The surviver means just that - surviver. Though it has to be able to put a fight and WIN the fight (if attacked or not) against those civilizations that ARE aggressive, selfish and so on (e.g. fascist Germany) but not best fitted to surviving. So the successful surviver has to have some aggressiveness - so that it can control the resources, so that it could win that fight.
Likewise, when talking about cultures (again, being very careful that we do not slip into Social Darwinism's fallacies), the most successful culture is not necessarily the one that can dominate all of its competition... Again I agree - it is not about dominating competition- it is about A) surviving (or out-competing) the competition (other cultures) and B) being able to survive the physical reality (limited resources and so on). Both of these points are equally important for the survivor. If it lucks either of those it will not be able to survive.
What I find Daniel Quinn have missed in his book is the whole point A - he concentrates only on point B, and this is where my whole disagreement with Ishamel and his other books. I can't understand how one can discuss some new way of life, when it will be out-competed in a few years by the other aggressive countries/cultures! |
jefgodesky
Mon Oct 10th, 2005 at 03:03 PM |
Because nothing can survive civilization's onslaught. And civilization can't keep itself alive. If you put everything into your ability to conquer--even your long-term survival--that means nobody can beat you in the short term. It also means you can't survive in the long term.
At the same time, civilization is an incredibly rare abberation--one that we saw for a brief flash in the pan, and cannot see again until geological ages have passed. I can't see this being a fair standard. Even slightly less suicidal civilizations can't stand up against ours (e.g., the Inka, or the Aztecs).
Ultimately, though, no society can survive. The galaxy will grow cold, the sun will die, humanity will go extinct ... on a long enough time line, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.
You may also be interested in the discussion of the military viability of rhizome, both in my own application for the proposal of the Appalachian Confederation, and with Jeff Vail's much more detailed discussion: [list][*:5617242f98]Defending Pala: Rhizome as Mode of Military Operations [*:5617242f98]Swarming, Open Source Warfare, and the Black Bloc [*:5617242f98]"Open Source Warfare" vs. "Arcane Use of Power"[/list:u:5617242f98] |
Nene
Mon Oct 10th, 2005 at 03:07 PM |
Hey --.
More over, as long as there are significantly different cultures, I think there will be competition between them (not nessesery wars, but wars as well) and the weakest cultures will be out-competed (not killed, out-competed). And no one can stop it.
And
This is exactly my view! This is exactly what I am saying. The survivor DOES NOT mean the most aggressive or selfish. Did I anywhere applied that? The surviver means just that - surviver. Though it has to be able to put a fight and WIN the fight (if attacked or not) against those civilizations that ARE aggressive, selfish and so on (e.g. fascist Germany) but not best fitted to surviving. So the successful surviver has to have some aggressiveness - so that it can control the resources, so that it could win that fight.
Just the same... I think I see a valid argument in all that. It is true that we cannot say for sure that the structures of modern civilization will not ever come back, or that new alternatives will be able to prosper, or even survive in the face of those same civilizational structures (Jason's probabilities not with standing and and others)
So here is the next question....
What do you WANT to do. What do want your life to look like? What would be your CHOICE for the future, if you could have anything you want? If the possibilities of neo-tribalism fit your desires... and there is any possibility that those systems might succeed... why would you pursue anything else?
If, on the other hand, there is nothing in Quinn's work that does appeal to you... then why are here? That's an honest question... not an attempt to be snide.
Janene |
MxM
Mon Oct 10th, 2005 at 04:34 PM |
If, on the other hand, there is nothing in Quinn's work that does appeal to you... then why are here? That's an honest question... not an attempt to be snide.
I will try to give answers on other question some other time, for now I will answer only about the book.
For me Ishmael is not the book of answers, but the book of questions. I liked the book very much for the right questions it asks, and for the description of how we came to be like this. Ishmael does not give answers. The answers appears in the other books of Quinn (and those I do not like, I could not believe that those books are written by the same author, who wrote "Ishmael", but this is separate topic).
This forum is called ISHCON, not TRIBECON or something like that. This is why I post here. I understand the importance of those questions, and I thought on those for quite a long time (even before I read the book, which was fairly recent, about 2 years ago). I may have different answers, but why should it prevent me from having thoughtful discussion with you guys? |
Nene
Mon Oct 10th, 2005 at 04:37 PM |
Fair enough :-)
Janene |
Seeker
Mon Oct 10th, 2005 at 11:25 PM |
Will it ever be time for a Post-Forum Age? |
MxM
Tue Oct 11th, 2005 at 12:07 PM |
The healthiest culture is that which is most sustainable, and most adapted to human nature. Well, let's start with the "human nature" staff. What is it? I afraid that you substituted one unknown by another. How can one clearly measure that? How can one say that this is 5% better for human nature than that. It is extremely subjective, more over, it depends on the culture as well.
The first part, however is the sustainable part. But I think that it is very close to the "better survival" term that I use, though it is only a part of survival. At least in standard (or my) understanding "sustaining" means to be able to receive necessary resources for a long time. This is very crucial part of survival. The thing that is kind of missing here is the prevention from catastrophic events like huge meteorite, WW3, or new virus that kills as all (directly, not through the absence of resources). This is why my personal preference is to use survival as a criteria, rather then sustaining. Survival is just more complete term. |
jefgodesky
Tue Oct 11th, 2005 at 12:20 PM |
Ahhh, now you're talking my language....
What is human nature? Why, precisely what we've evolved to be, of course!
http://anthropik.com/tag/human+nature
Just because the subject of "human nature" has so much FUD floating about does not make it unknowable, mysterious, or subjective. It's still a fact that we're evolved to function as part of a small, band-level society, and that we're egregiously maladapted to operating under any non-egalitarian state of affairs. Trying to fit a human into a hierarchy is trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. Even a toddler knows how to solve that problem.
The thing that is kind of missing here is the prevention from catastrophic events like huge meteorite, WW3, or new virus that kills as all (directly, not through the absence of resources).
All of which small band-level society would be better equipped to handle. Natural disasters are nearly non-events to such societies; the extant foragers in the way of the tsunami earlier this year were quite safe, for example. |
MxM
Tue Oct 11th, 2005 at 01:54 PM |
The thing that is kind of missing here is the prevention from catastrophic events like huge meteorite, WW3, or new virus that kills as all (directly, not through the absence of resources). All of which small band-level society would be better equipped to handle. Natural disasters are nearly non-events to such societies; the extant foragers in the way of the tsunami earlier this year were quite safe, for example.
No, they are not. The meteorite destroyed the dinosaurs. Statistically, we should get the same event sooner or later. And we will die out, just like dinosaurs did.
The viruses can wipe out species as well, if you do not have medicine. Different species come and go, and humans would be no better if not for technology. Even understanding that there are those dangers needs technology. And so far as I see, you do need a civilization to maintain necessary level of technology, so that you could shoot down that meteorite, or treat for that virus. It also can help to increase the amount and variety of available resources (oceans, space and so on), so that if something happens with one, you have another.
I also do not understand why you (and other people, including mr. Quinn) saying that civilization is relatively new phenomenon, as if it is bad. Yes, it is new, but everything good or bad was new sometime. It was new for the first bird to fly. It was new for the fist animal to go out of the sea to live on the land. It was new for the firs organism to multiply. Does it make these phenomenons bad in some sense??? |
jefgodesky
Tue Oct 11th, 2005 at 02:05 PM |
Technology != medicine != civilization
"Technology" is a primitive invention, remember. Pretty much every ethnomedicine on the planet winds up with the same effectivness. Every culture believes their ethnomedicine is the only valid one, and everyone else's is just a bunch of hogwash. But they end up being more-or-less interchangeable. Our ethnomedicine treats some things better than theirs; theirs treats some things better than ours. So, that's no reason to keep civilization around, as you could pick up any primitive medicine on the planet without any noticeable loss of effectiveness.
Mass extinction-level events--like a meteorite--might wipe us out. Or might not. Depends how adaptable we are. Humans are unbelievably adaptable--I'd put them on par with the cockroach. The dinosaurs, well, significantly less so. But, that's more reason to ditch civilization. Sans civilization, your probability of a mass extinction-level event is infintisimal. With civilization it rises to 1--because civilization must expand until it creates one. Also, those rare events like a meteorite do a lot more damage to a sedentary civilization that's totally dependent on a handful of finicky cereal grains than they do to a bunch of small bands of nomadic omnivores. To starve a forager, you'd need to kill pretty much all mutli-cellular life on earth--and even our current mass extinction (the worst ever sustained) isn't that bad.
New doesn't mean bad; new means untested. New means you should be suspicious of it, because it hasn't proven itself yet. In this case, it means, "Holy shit, how can anything fail so completely--and on this kind of scale--in such a short time?" Civilization is, in terms of scale, completeness, and time, the single greatest failure in the known universe, ever. |
MxM
Tue Oct 11th, 2005 at 02:26 PM |
Hey --. More over, as long as there are significantly different cultures, I think there will be competition between them (not nessesery wars, but wars as well) and the weakest cultures will be out-competed (not killed, out-competed). And no one can stop it.
And This is exactly my view! This is exactly what I am saying. The survivor DOES NOT mean the most aggressive or selfish. Did I anywhere applied that? The surviver means just that - surviver. Though it has to be able to put a fight and WIN the fight (if attacked or not) against those civilizations that ARE aggressive, selfish and so on (e.g. fascist Germany) but not best fitted to surviving. So the successful surviver has to have some aggressiveness - so that it can control the resources, so that it could win that fight. Just the same...
No, it is not the same. What I wanted to say it is not the MOST aggressive civilization, which is the best survival, but SOME level of aggressiveness is probably beneficial in competition with other cultures. |
MxM
Tue Oct 11th, 2005 at 02:47 PM |
Ahhh, now you're talking my language....
What is human nature? Why, precisely what we've evolved to be, of course!
And we have evolved in what you see around. Humans are not just animals. Human has something extra - knowledge of previous generation, his culture, technology, and yes, civilization. That's what modern human is. That is what human "nature" is, because, by you own words, we evolved into it!
I suspect, that you want to say that civilization is not a part of the "human nature", but how you can take and remove some parts of it (for definition of the words "human nature") because you do not like it? If you do that, then again the definition of "human nature" become really subjective and not generally accepted. |
Nene
Tue Oct 11th, 2005 at 02:56 PM |
Hey --
No, it is not the same. What I wanted to say it is not the MOST aggressive civilization, which is the best survival, but SOME level of aggressiveness is probably beneficial in competition with other cultures.
Woah, dude... I wasn't saying they were the same, I was saying, even though I read these two things to reach my conclusion... even so, I could see where you were coming from. Sorry, stupid american colloquialism.
I suspect, that you want to say that civilization is not a part of the "human nature", but how you can take and remove some parts of it (for definition of the words "human nature") because you do not like it? If you do that, then again the definition of "human nature" become really subjective and not generally accepted.
Well, ummm, that's kinda like saying that since domestic cattle are (largely) unable to survive in the wild, then it must be bovine nature to be utterly dependant on man. Adaption can be positive OR negative. I think what Quinn (and we) are trying to point out is that just because something exists does not mean it is adaptable. Humans HAVE adapted, to some degree, to living in hierarchal structures. But most of those adaptations have decreased our viability as a species. So do we continue to pursue mal-adaptions, or do we look for those that have been proven to work?
Janene |
jefgodesky
Tue Oct 11th, 2005 at 02:57 PM |
We haven't evolved to fit civilization, because it's too new. Sure, if we could strut around with it for a few million years, we'd evolve to fit it. But we've only had it for 10,000 years, so it remains the antithesis of everything it means to be human. We evolved to expect egalitarian groups. It's what created our whole genus. So what do we do with civilization? All crowd into the only arrangement that isn't egalitarian.
You can't say that we've "evolved" into something that's so incredibly recent. That's precisely why civilization makes for such a sick society; because we haven't evolved into it. We're still Pleistocene animals, we haven't had enough time to change that much. Putting humans into a civilization is putting a square peg in a round hole. Even a toddler knows the solution to that problem.
Also--yes, humans are just animals. Intelligence and knowledge are not uniquely human. Nor even learning. Nor even culture. Orangutans, chimps and even crows use tools, teach their young, and have discernable cultures. None of the things you list are unique to us--not even the combination of them. |
MxM
Tue Oct 11th, 2005 at 03:50 PM |
Technology != medicine != civilization "Technology" is a primitive invention, remember. Pretty much every ethnomedicine on the planet winds up with the same effectivness. Every culture believes their ethnomedicine is the only valid one, and everyone else's is just a bunch of hogwash. But they end up being more-or-less interchangeable. Our ethnomedicine treats some things better than theirs; theirs treats some things better than ours. So, that's no reason to keep civilization around, as you could pick up any primitive medicine on the planet without any noticeable loss of effectiveness.
With all my respect, you are trying to bend reality to your own point of view. All you need to do is to look at mortality rates in Africa and in any other country which has better access to the modern medicine. Just the numbers!!! The way for the non-developed nations/tribes to compensate for high mortality rates is not ethnomedicine, it is high birth rate, and you know it. So do not try to say ethnomedicine = modern medicine in abilities to make longer, healthier lives.
Mass extinction-level events--like a meteorite--might wipe us out. Or might not.
Well, I am not comfortable of putting our species on "might". As I said, species come and go. Neanderthals are not here today. According to some studies, at some point in time the whole population of homo sapience was only few thousand. If some catastrophe happens then, we would not exist any more. So yes, the chances that we will survive without civilization each particular year is 99.999...%, but it means that you just have to wait long enough until humans die out for one or other reason. And thay can not survive without advanced techology the death of the planet itself. Meanwhile civilization has capability to carry humanity until the thermal death of the universe, and who knows, may be beyond... We need civilization for that, not in the present state, but we do evolve. We just need to know where to go.
New doesn't mean bad; new means untested. New means you should be suspicious of it, because it hasn't proven itself yet. In this case, it means, "Holy shit, how can anything fail so completely--and on this kind of scale--in such a short time?" Civilization is, in terms of scale, completeness, and time, the single greatest failure in the known universe, ever .
We did not fail, we still alive and kicking. We may fail in future if we do not learn how to live with limited resources. However, limited resources does not mean limited development. Civilizations/cultures will evolve in order to survive. Look at EU. Those countries have been in constant wars for thousand years, and now there is peace. It took change in culture, but it is done. Luckily for us, the resources do not end at one second - they go away really slow. And we will have time to adjust. For now, I do not see anything catastrophic that can happen, that can not be prevented, if we act now. |
jefgodesky
Tue Oct 11th, 2005 at 05:11 PM |
You're pointing to the failures of civilization, to prove the viability of civilization? The mortality rates of the Third World are not the mortality rates due to some other culture's conception of medicine, they're the mortality rates of a civilization practicing Western biomedicine! As I wrote in "Thesis #8: Human societies are defined by their food."
Interestingly, at this extreme, two forager correlates--the nuclear family, and the Inuit kinship system--return to the fore. The complexity of industrialism reduces the ROI of child-bearing while also lowering the death rate and extending the expected lifespan to very near forager levels. Europeans only reached the stature of their Mesolithic ancestors once again in about 1950, for example, thanks to "affluent malnutrition"--the state of nutrition that Steve Brill characterized as "overfed and malnourished." This results in a significantly lower birthrate for industrialized counties.
Unfortunately, like pastoralism, industrialism is also incapable of existing on its own. This extreme level of complexity is very costly, and can only be maintained by externalizing costs. This generally requires a less complex area--an agricultural region--that can serve to pay those costs.
...
Thus, we see that industrialism cannot exist on its own. It can only exist on top of an agricultural system, by exploiting the lesser complexity of that system to offset its own costs. The First World needs the Third World--and so, industrialism can never succeed in replacing or eliminating agriculturalism. Industrialism and greater complexity are no solution to the current crisis of the diminishing returns on complexity.
So, the mortality you're citing has nothing to do with other ethnomedicine. It's the dark side of our own system that no one likes to talk about.
But, if we were to do an actual study, and look at real numbers, and see how many people go to a medical doctor vs. a witch doctor, and then divide that by how many of them are cured, the percentage comes out to ... something around 75% for both of them. Many such studies have been done; take a look at any introductory text in medical anthropology and it should provide all you need to prove that assertion.
If some catastrophe happens then, we would not exist any more.
The Later Pleistocene Bottleneck was because such a catastrophe occurred--probably the eruption of Toba, Sumatra. But, because it's damned near impossible to wipe out a bunch of nomadic omnivores, we survived. We've survived several bottlenecks, actually, because we were nomadic omnivores. Civilization has yet to survive anything--so far, it keeps killing itself too quickly for it to face any kind of natural disaster.
By comparison, most dinosaurs were very specifically adapted. They were much less adaptable than us. They had a specific diet, a specific climate, and wouldn't have done terribly well if anything changed. Yet evidence is mounting that even they weren't quite so completely wiped out--but nothing stays the same forever, and now, T. Rex is an ostrich.
So yes, the chances that we will survive without civilization each particular year is 99.999...%, but it means that you just have to wait long enough until humans die out for one or other reason.
True, but civilization doesn't help your odds any. In fact, it lowers them. Not only are you less likely to survive a natural disaster, you also have more disasters to worry about.
Meanwhile civilization has capability to carry humanity until the thermal death of the universe, and who knows, may be beyond...
No way. No way in hell. The point of diminishing returns for complexity is somewhere about our own technological level which, despite our self-gratified attitude, is not really all that much above medieval leeches if you try to look at it objectively. The fossil fuel subsidy has allowed more energy--and more complexity--in our industrialized culture than ever was or ever will be again, and even we aren't that complex. And the fossil fuel subsidy is about to end very abruptly. We're already past the point of diminishing returns for research & development, education, and technological innovation, and we're nowhere near that point yet. It's a science fiction daydream like the Singularity without any basis in reality whatsoever.
We did not fail, we still alive and kicking. We may fail in future if we do not learn how to live with limited resources. However, limited resources does not mean limited development.
Law of Conservation of Mass/Energy would seem to indicate otherwise. Civilization will not outlive us; it can't outlive us. To cheat Peak Oil (which we probably reached yesterday), not only do we need that "fairy dust" solution the Chicago School keeps talking about--you know the one, that magical energy source that burns as well as oil, but not one of thr 6.5 billion people on earth have ever thought to try burning, despite the promise of becoming the richmest person alive if they find it first? Once we have that, we'll just need the time machine--so we can go back to the 1970s, to retrofit out entire economy to make use of this new fuel source.
Even if an "economic equivalent" does exist, it's too late--you needed to find it 30 years ago. And get everyone on board with it.
My contention is simply that at this point, we've tried burning, bending, eating, cutting, striking, folding, smoking, melting, or otherwise manipulating pretty much every substance on earth--and quite a few substances that aren't. If we still haven't found it, it's probably not available in sufficient quantities to matter. That means Peak Oil is it, that's all there is, no more. |
MxM
Tue Oct 11th, 2005 at 07:06 PM |
You're pointing to the failures of civilization, to prove the viability of civilization? The mortality rates of the Third World are not the mortality rates due to some other culture's conception of medicine, they're the mortality rates of a civilization practicing Western biomedicine !
Are you saying that such parameters like child mortality rates, and the average life span of the African people before we got there were better than what we have right now, say in Europe?!!! No way!
If some catastrophe happens then, we would not exist any more. The Later Pleistocene Bottleneck was because such a catastrophe occurred--probably the eruption of Toba, Sumatra. But, because it's damned near impossible to wipe out a bunch of nomadic omnivores, we survived. We've survived several bottlenecks, actually, because we were nomadic omnivores. Civilization has yet to survive anything--so far, it keeps killing itself too quickly for it to face any kind of natural disaster.
One question: where are the Neanderthals? They were "a bunch of nomadic omnivores". And they died out extremely fast on the whole geological scale! species come and go, and if humans live as animals, they will go as animals as well.
So yes, the chances that we will survive without civilization each particular year is 99.999...%, but it means that you just have to wait long enough until humans die out for one or other reason. True, but civilization doesn't help your odds any. In fact, it lowers them. Not only are you less likely to survive a natural disaster, you also have more disasters to worry about.
But you also better prepared to survive them, e.g. divert that meteorite from the collision course with Earth.
Meanwhile civilization has capability to carry humanity until the thermal death of the universe, and who knows, may be beyond... No way. No way in hell. The point of diminishing returns for complexity is somewhere about our own technological level which, despite our self-gratified attitude, is not really all that much above medieval leeches if you try to look at it objectively. The fossil fuel subsidy has allowed more energy--and more complexity--in our industrialized culture than ever was or ever will be again, and even we aren't that complex. And the fossil fuel subsidy is about to end very abruptly. We're already past the point of diminishing returns for research & development, education, and technological innovation, and we're nowhere near that point yet. It's a science fiction daydream like the Singularity without any basis in reality whatsoever. I do not know how well are you qualified to make those statements, I have Ph.D. in physics, and I disagree with you. There are lots of unsolved problems on fundamental level, let along on pure practical/technical levels. A.I.? Quantum computers? Unified theory? String theory? The list just goes on, where we can have discoveries that can change the world. You may disagree with me, but think about this way: With civilization we have at least some chance to outlive our Planet, without civilization none, zero. (Unless, of cause, some aliens who do have civilization, take as as pets on their own planet)
We did not fail, we still alive and kicking. We may fail in future if we do not learn how to live with limited resources. However, limited resources does not mean limited development. Law of Conservation of Mass/Energy would seem to indicate otherwise. Civilization will not outlive us; it can't outlive us. To cheat Peak Oil (which we probably reached yesterday), not only do we need that "fairy dust" solution the Chicago School keeps talking about--you know the one, that magical energy source that burns as well as oil, but not one of thr 6.5 billion people on earth have ever thought to try burning, despite the promise of becoming the richmest person alive if they find it first? Once we have that, we'll just need the time machine--so we can go back to the 1970s, to retrofit out entire economy to make use of this new fuel source. Even if an "economic equivalent" does exist, it's too late--you needed to find it 30 years ago. And get everyone on board with it. My contention is simply that at this point, we've tried burning, bending, eating, cutting, striking, folding, smoking, melting, or otherwise manipulating pretty much every substance on earth--and quite a few substances that aren't. If we still haven't found it, it's probably not available in sufficient quantities to matter. That means Peak Oil is it, that's all there is, no more.
Hmm. 1 )Natural gas, there are cars that actually use it. I do not know the exact numbers but the global volume of natural gas is quite high 2) Coal. There is way to get gasoline from coal. It is not cheap, but with current prices on oil, it is already comparable. Pennsylvania along has enough coal to last 40 years for US. And this is just single state 3) Electric cars. Which you need to charge, true, but there are so many ways to generate electricity, which does not relay on the fossils. Nuclear, fusion, solar, tidal and so on. It is enough for thousand of years, or in case of sum for millions.
In short, the reason why we did not use much of the other ways of energy that much is because the oil was cheap, and the other technologies where not developed, now everything is changing. You see, for example in Pennsylvania, they start building those plants to refine coal into gasoline; the first fusion power station is about to be build in EU. The technology just goes ahead.
And sure the conservation law puts limit on us. But first, even in our solar system, or even on our planet we just scratched the available energy. The sun along send us 1KW/m^2, which we right now practically do not use.
But I was not talking about developments like more cars, homes and so on. You can have development of science and technology and arts without much increase of energy consumption. Do you know that theoretically you do not need to spend energy at all in order to process information?
Enough said for today, I will continue our interesting discussion tomorrow, if time permits. |
Hypnopompia
Tue Oct 11th, 2005 at 10:42 PM |
Just something to throw in about energy.
Natural Gas will peak shortly after oil. Coal is mined using oil. Electricity has to come from somewhere, and all current sources are in some way reliant on oil.
Yes, there are possibly a near infinite number of other sources of power. But unless you had something ready for production twenty years ago, its too late now. Even if we developed a new power source today, there would be no time to implement it. This is a practical logistics problem, not a quatum physics one. You need to time, money, and effort to retrofit our entire energy infastructure to handle a new source. We simply don't have enough time, or oil ironically enough, to change every energy using device in the world in time. |
MxM
Wed Oct 12th, 2005 at 12:04 PM |
How about nuclear power plants? Tidal power plants and all other alternative sources? The technology exist now and used, and IIRC quite significant portion of electricity is provided by nuclear power which was available for 50 years at least.
And what is "soon" means in soon after oil? 30 years? This is quite enough time to be prepared for that. The nice thing about market system is that as those resources go away, the price for them increases which make very profitable to invest into other types of energy. So the market will react and correct automatically, even if government does not do a thing. We started seeing this now with oil companies investing into, say wind generators, but now the oil is still cheap, so even though they have technology, they do not widely install it.
The problem that I see with the free market, or inaction of government is that the companies goal is to get as much profit as they can. They do not care about people. So when that restructuring is happening, a lot of people looses their jobs. But it does not destroy the civilization as a whole. This is where the government should step in and to make the transition as smooth as possible, by financing in ADVANCE R&D and deployment of alternative energy sources.
You may be right though, that out governments could do more to smooth out that transition. But right now I do not see the "global catastrophe" in the nearest 50 years because of the oil. Honestly, I am more worried about middle east situation, and possibility of nuclear (or as our president say nukelar) terrorist attack than about the oil problem.
In my mind the problem of the modern wold is inability for people/countries to find common language and understanding to such extend that it still leads to wars.
Coal is mined using oil. So what? Everything what we do now uses oil directly or indirectly, it does not mean that coal could not be mined using coal. |
Nene
Wed Oct 12th, 2005 at 12:57 PM |
Hey --
Are you saying that such parameters like child mortality rates, and the average life span of the African people before we got there were better than what we have right now, say in Europe?!!! No way!
Prior to the Neolithic Revolution, the average lifespan of a three year old child was 60. (Younger than that -- no. Between infanticide and disease, children under three had a high mortality rate) After the Neolithic Revolution, the average lifespan of a child of three was thirty five. It is only in the twentieth century that we once again saw laverage lifespan reach 60 again. So yes, stone age lifespans, in Africa and most everywhere else, were better before we got there, up until recent years.
One question: where are the Neanderthals? They were "a bunch of nomadic omnivores". And they died out extremely fast on the whole geological scale! species come and go, and if humans live as animals, they will go as animals as well.
What's wrong with that? As if we have any control over it anyway? Species live or die based upon thier adaptability to changing conditions. How could we be any different? And why would you want it to be so? Trying to subvert this process is actively, intentionally, seeking the lowest common denominator.... I don't want any part of that.
I do not know how well are you qualified to make those statements, I have Ph.D. in physics, and I disagree with you. There are lots of unsolved problems on fundamental level, let along on pure practical/technical levels. A.I.? Quantum computers? Unified theory? String theory? The list just goes on, where we can have discoveries that can change the world. You may disagree with me, but think about this way: With civilization we have at least some chance to outlive our Planet, without civilization none, zero.
That's because you are equating civilization with technology and knowledge. It is neither. As we come to understand emergent phenomena more, it becomes clear that PERHAPS the real answer to understanding our world and excelling as a species may well lie within emergent behaviors rather than intentional ones. A Bee Hive, or an Ant Hill can be described as very complex phenomena. But they are not complex because they contain complex parts, rather the opposite. The parts are very simple, but the emergent phenomena is complex.
In the same way, computer programmers understand that lots of simple procedures are a much more effective, stable and viable way of addressing complex computations.
And I believe that in the same way, a new paradigm may well enable greater scientific understanding of our world. We don't need hierarchies to learn. In fact, intellectual property, scientific competition, political domination etc probably stifle scientific progress.
How about nuclear power plants?
If we had spent the last fifty years developing nuclear energy, we might be able to do a lot with it. Unfortunately, the political pressures of tthe last fifty years have effectively prevented us from learning how to deal with nuclear powere, process waste, create safe procedures and disposal etc. Nuclear power is no more safe, clean or effective now than it was in 1970. What a waste. (and of course, we don't KNOW if we could have found ways to do nuclear cleanly. So know we are just as ignorant of its true potential (or not) as ever)
As it is, current world nuclear energy accounts for 17% of worldwide electricity use, whereas 'most' of the US electricity is generated by burning fossil fuels (source)
And what is "soon" means in soon after oil? 30 years? This is quite enough time to be prepared for that. The nice thing about market system is that as those resources go away, the price for them increases which make very profitable to invest into other types of energy. So the market will react and correct automatically, even if government does not do a thing. We started seeing this now with oil companies investing into, say wind generators, but now the oil is still cheap, so even though they have technology, they do not widely install it.
I have been, to some degree, a big advocate of market correction re: oil infrastructure. Unfortunately, the current policies of the US government undermine that free market. The government taxes our income, property etc, then uses that money to pay the oil companies subsidies to keep fuel prices low. IF they reverse that trend, then market economics have a chance of slowing down oil consumption. But there is no indication from our government that will do any such thing.
But right now I do not see the "global catastrophe" in the nearest 50 years because of the oil. Honestly, I am more worried about middle east situation, and possibility of nuclear (or as our president say nukelar) terrorist attack than about the oil problem.
I am a little more wary of the predictions than most here, but even I wonder aloud when I see that the government and the oil indiustry is taking this very seriously. The fact that they take it seriously but aren't talking about it publicly, worries me even more. I find it interesting that our president (up until the last couple weeks) has insisted that we MUST maintain our oil infrastructure, regardless of the cost, while building himself a home that is totally sustainable and off the grid. Do as I say, not as I do????
Janene |
Hypnopompia
Wed Oct 12th, 2005 at 01:04 PM |
How about nuclear power plants? Tidal power plants and all other alternative sources? The technology exist now and used, and IIRC quite significant portion of electricity is provided by nuclear power which was available for 50 years at least.
Tidal plants and such are insufficent. They don't generate enough energy and that energy cannot be easily shipped. They therefore are not sufficent to replace oil.
Nuclear power is worthless. In order to meet estimated demand in 2010 we would need to build over 300 additional plants. In the past fifty years we've only built 30. Production would need to be stepped up significantly. And people still don't want nuclear plants near them and you still can't ship this energy.
And what is "soon" means in soon after oil? 30 years? This is quite enough time to be prepared for that. The nice thing about market system is that as those resources go away, the price for them increases which make very profitable to invest into other types of energy. So the market will react and correct automatically, even if government does not do a thing. We started seeing this now with oil companies investing into, say wind generators, but now the oil is still cheap, so even though they have technology, they do not widely install it.
30 years is optomistic. And you have to remember we aren't talk about 30 years like the last thrity years. We'd be talking about trying to do this in a world where there isn't enough water of all things. Let alone food and space. In fact, the only thing that we are predicting being short of is guns.
The problem that I see with the free market, or inaction of government is that the companies goal is to get as much profit as they can. They do not care about people. So when that restructuring is happening, a lot of people looses their jobs. But it does not destroy the civilization as a whole. This is where the government should step in and to make the transition as smooth as possible, by financing in ADVANCE R&D and deployment of alternative energy sources.
Too little, too late. Throughing money at the problem won't and can't fix it. Certianly not at this point. You can't fund genius, it's either there and ready or its not.
You may be right though, that out governments could do more to smooth out that transition. But right now I do not see the "global catastrophe" in the nearest 50 years because of the oil. Honestly, I am more worried about middle east situation, and possibility of nuclear (or as our president say nukelar) terrorist attack than about the oil problem.
I don't think the governments can, will, or should. Oil will peak before then, that means no more cheap oil. Even the optomistic oil geologists are saying by 2030 at this point. Most are predicting between 2010 and 2020.
In my mind the problem of the modern wold is inability for people/countries to find common language and understanding to such extend that it still leads to wars.
Wars are systemic of over-population. Talking more won't stop wars, at best it might be we have to come up with better excuses.
Coal is mined using oil. So what? Everything what we do now uses oil directly or indirectly, it does not mean that coal could not be mined using coal. [/quote]
That's exactly my point. Everything we do uses oil. And coal is a poor substitute at best. We use oil for fertilizer, pesticides, shipping, harvesting, planting, plowing, etc. We eat the stuff. Most new medicines are oil. The computer you're using is oil. Your transportation is oil based. (Even bikes are made of oil.) There is no substitute that can do even half of this stuff. |
Nene
Wed Oct 12th, 2005 at 01:42 PM |
Hey --
That's exactly my point. Everything we do uses oil. And coal is a poor substitute at best. We use oil for fertilizer, pesticides, shipping, harvesting, planting, plowing, etc. We eat the stuff. Most new medicines are oil. The computer you're using is oil. Your transportation is oil based. (Even bikes are made of oil.) There is no substitute that can do even half of this stuff.
This is the crux of the problem I have with 'Peak Oil'
This statement has two implicit assumptions in it.
1) We can only replace oil by finding a single, all encompassing alternative.
That's just dumb. I'm sorry, but I really think it is. there is NO reason in the world why we need a single resource that does everything. In fact, this is another point where diversity is king.
2) (And this is more contentious) That in order to replace oil we need to replace every last watt of energy(complexity) that it provides. Currently, we waste more energy than we used fifty years ago (I'm making up figures, but I'm sure it is true at some point in time). I think that this is a questionable assumption. Jason has made a strong case for critical compexity and all that, so I am willing to consider that it MIGHT be true. But we simply don't have examples to look at for proof. I mean, when Rome fell, Rome itself never fell. The empire broke apart from the outside in... and the further from Rome you were, the more dramatic the fall (ignoring the Eastern Empire, for now). What does this look like when the whole world is involved? I dunno.
I think the big question here, is slope. If we fall off of a cliff, then things are gonna be really bad. If, on the other hand, we alleviate the problems gradually, then not so much. Currently, politics is driving us toward that cliff with no end in site. If our only chance for 'salvation' is poliitics, then its all over. Of course the other alternative is Quinn's -- mind change. Interestingly, as things get worse, the possibility for mind change increases. So its a race for the finish. I mean, right now, we have this 'voluntary simplicity' movement. What happens as the 'voluntary' part becomes more necessary? And how quickly does it happen? I suspect 'how quickly' depends on how much 'voluntary' action we see.
Janene |
Hypnopompia
Wed Oct 12th, 2005 at 03:50 PM |
This is the crux of the problem I have with 'Peak Oil'
This statement has two implicit assumptions in it.
1) We can only replace oil by finding a single, all encompassing alternative.
That's just dumb. I'm sorry, but I really think it is. there is NO reason in the world why we need a single resource that does everything. In fact, this is another point where diversity is king.
How about this then: there is no single nor any combination of chemicals known to man that can sufficently compensate civilization for the loss of cheap oil.
Take just transportation. We have no chemical means at our disposal to replace oil in moving things around. Nor can civilization withstand a lacking in this area. We can't go back to "use what you got inside 15 miles." Most of our population is too densely populated, and in locals that are not arable. This means that without the ability to transport tons of food and water into these areas cheaply, everyone in those areas will die. With a couple of cannabolistic exceptions.
This does not include the lacking of medicines, fertilizers, or pesticides. And we are still no talking about electricity.
2) (And this is more contentious) That in order to replace oil we need to replace every last watt of energy(complexity) that it provides. Currently, we waste more energy than we used fifty years ago (I'm making up figures, but I'm sure it is true at some point in time). I think that this is a questionable assumption. Jason has made a strong case for critical compexity and all that, so I am willing to consider that it MIGHT be true. But we simply don't have examples to look at for proof. I mean, when Rome fell, Rome itself never fell. The empire broke apart from the outside in... and the further from Rome you were, the more dramatic the fall (ignoring the Eastern Empire, for now). What does this look like when the whole world is involved? I dunno.
Jason and I are of like mind on this. Civilization can't use less energy. Even if each person uses less, the increase in population still nessesitates an increase in the net amount of energy required.
I think the big question here, is slope. If we fall off of a cliff, then things are gonna be really bad. If, on the other hand, we alleviate the problems gradually, then not so much. Currently, politics is driving us toward that cliff with no end in site. If our only chance for 'salvation' is poliitics, then its all over. Of course the other alternative is Quinn's -- mind change. Interestingly, as things get worse, the possibility for mind change increases. So its a race for the finish. I mean, right now, we have this 'voluntary simplicity' movement. What happens as the 'voluntary' part becomes more necessary? And how quickly does it happen? I suspect 'how quickly' depends on how much 'voluntary' action we see.
For a long time this was my arguement. Change minds, more tribes, slow down. Maybe we can bring it down gently. But I'm no longer convinced there is sufficent time to do this. Simplicity is already a nessesity. People still by Hummers even while gas is a dollar a gallon higher than in early | |